When Will Social Security Run Out? Latest Projections and Timelines

The news that Social Security will run out is widely spread, but it’s misleading. 

Trust funds supporting Social Security are projected to be depleted in the coming decade under current law, but that doesn’t mean the program ends. 

Payments would simply be limited by incoming tax revenue. 

What does run out really mean for Social Security?

Running out refers to the point when the Social Security trust funds (OASI and DI) no longer have reserves to draw on. 

From that point forward, Social Security can only pay benefits from ongoing income (payroll taxes and other receipts). 

Benefits would be reduced rather than eliminated. 

The 2025 Trustees Report projects that, after depletion, Social Security can cover about 81 percent of scheduled benefits from tax revenue alone.

What are the latest depletion dates projected?

Recent projections place depletion of trust funds in this range:

1. The OASI (retirement & survivors) trust fund is projected to be depleted in 2033 under current assumptions.
2. The combined OASI + DI (Old Age + Disability) trust funds are projected to deplete in 2034 — one year earlier than in prior reports.
3. Some analysts note that voluntary combining of the OASI and DI funds could shift dates slightly, but doing so would require legal changes.

So under current law, the key action-forcing year is 2033 for the retirement portion, and 2034 for the combined program.

Why did the estimated depletion date move forward?

Several factors have nudged the projections earlier:

1. The Social Security Fairness Act, passed in January 2025, repealed the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and Government Pension Offset (GPO). That increases benefit costs, accelerating trust fund drawdown.
2. Slower wage growth, demographic shifts (fewer workers per retiree), and rising longevity place greater strain on the system.
3. Changes in economic assumptions and updated projections in the 2025 Trustees Report caused the combined depletion date to be moved one year earlier compared to the 2024 report.

What happens to benefits when the trust funds deplete?

Once reserves are exhausted,

1. The system would pay only what incoming revenues allow, which the Trustees estimate at about 81 percent of scheduled benefits for the combined program initially.
2. For the OASI portion (retirement/survivors), benefit cuts start in 2033 under scheduled law.
3. That’s not a partial cut only for some — reductions would apply across the board, proportionally, unless Congress legislates a different fix.

How confident are experts in these projections?

Projections are not certain; they hinge on assumptions about demographics, economics, and future policy. Key uncertainties include:

1. Future wage growth, productivity, and inflation
2. Changes in birth rates, immigration, mortality (lifespan)
3. How Congress might adjust taxes, benefits, or indexing methods
4. The financial effect of newly passed legislation like the Fairness Act

Still, the projection window is considered reasonably stable: the Trustees often report a 95 percent confidence range for depletion dates.

What is the 75-year actuarial deficit, and why is it important?

Beyond short-term depletion, the Trustees assess long-term financing via the 75-year horizon:

1. In 2025, the 75-year actuarial deficit for the combined program is estimated at 3.82 percent of taxable payroll.
2. This means that over the next 75 years, the program’s scheduled costs exceed expected income by that percentage unless adjustments are made.
3. The longer reforms are delayed, the larger the burden later becomes to maintain benefit levels.

What should beneficiaries and future retirees do?

Given these projections:

1. Don’t count on full benefits forever. Plan for potential reductions or delays.
2. Monitor legislative developments. Congress may pass reforms (e.g. tax increases, benefit cuts, new revenue sources) before 2033–2034.
3. Factor in Social Security as one part of retirement income — diversify with savings, investments, or pensions.
4. Stay updated with each annual Trustees Report, especially changes to depletion dates or assumptions.
5. Advocate for responsible policy fixes — enacted reforms will shape how severe the cuts might be.