When you receive benefits from the Social Security Administration (SSA), the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is one of the most important changes each year.
The COLA increases your benefit amount to reflect inflation.
For 2026, the SSA has not yet announced a final figure, but multiple credible forecasts suggest what to expect.
How is the COLA for Social Security calculated?
The SSA bases the COLA on the change in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).
Specifically, the average CPI-W for the third quarter of the current year (July, August, September) is compared with the same quarter from the previous year.
If the CPI-W has increased, the percentage increase becomes the COLA for benefits payable the next year.
What is the expected COLA for 2026?
While the official number has not yet been announced by SSA, current forecasts estimate a COLA of about 2.7% for 2026.
Some forecasts suggest a range between 2.5% and 2.8%. The previous year’s COLA (2025) was 2.5%.
When will the 2026 COLA take effect?
Once the SSA announces the official percentage, typically in October, the increase will apply to benefits payable in January 2026.
Due to a delayed release of inflation data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) because of the federal government shutdown, the announcement is now scheduled for October 24, 2025.
How much could my monthly benefit increase if COLA is 2.7%?
If the average retired‐worker monthly benefit is about $2,008 (as of August 2025), a 2.7% COLA would raise it by approximately $54 per month, bringing it to about $2,062.
The actual increase for you will depend on your specific benefit amount.
Why might the COLA seem smaller than inflation feels?
Although the COLA aims to match inflation, the CPI-W measure may not reflect the specific cost increases faced by many older Americans, such as rising medical costs or housing.
In addition, if Medicare premiums or other deductions rise, they can offset much of your COLA increase.
What should you do now to prepare for the 2026 COLA?
First, monitor your “my Social Security” account to check for the official announcement.
Second, when the new benefit amount arrives, update your monthly budget to reflect the increase.
Third, examine other costs you face (health care, housing, transportation) and see how the COLA fits into your broader household spending.
Fourth, remember that while the COLA raises your benefit, it does not change eligibility rules or the benefit formula.
What are possible future changes to COLA methodology?
The SSA’s Office of the Chief Actuary notes that future legislation could alter how COLA is computed.
For example, starting December 2026, one proposal would “add 1 percentage point to the annual COLA for beneficiaries who have lived past a specified age.”
These changes are not yet law but are part of long‐term policy discussion.
