Is Social Security Going Away? Facts, Myths, and Future Outlook

Many fear that Social Security might vanish altogether or that future retirees will get nothing. That is a myth. 

But the program does face serious financial challenges. 

The official projections and expert analysis offer a more nuanced picture: Social Security won’t disappear, but benefit cuts or financing changes may be required if Congress does nothing.

What do the latest trustees’ reports say about the viability of Social Security?

The Social Security Board of Trustees issues an annual report projecting long-term finances.

The 2025 report shows that under current law, the trust funds for Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) will likely be depleted around 2033, and if OASI and Disability Insurance (DI) funds were combined, depletion might occur by 2034.

After depletion, Social Security will not stop paying benefits, but it can no longer pay full scheduled benefits. 

According to projections, incoming payroll tax revenue would cover about 81 percent of scheduled benefits.

The Trustees also report that the 75-year actuarial deficit has grown. In 2025, the shortfall is estimated at 3.82 percent of taxable payroll.

These projections assume no major policy changes. They are not guarantees but warnings to policymakers.

Which common myths about Social Security are misleading?

Myth: Social Security is going bankrupt and will be gone by the time I retire.
Reality: Even in depletion scenarios, Social Security will continue to pay benefits—just at reduced amounts unless Congress acts. Many analysts say that the “going away” claim misrepresents official projections.

Myth: Younger generations will receive nothing.
Reality: While benefits may be reduced, future recipients will likely still get something—though possibly less, based on policy adjustments.

Myth: The shortfall is small and can be ignored.
Reality: The deficit is large and growing. If policy action is delayed, corrections become sharper and more painful.

Myth: Only benefit cuts matter.
Reality: Changes in revenue (e.g., payroll taxes, removing earnings caps) are also possible and often considered part of reform packages.

What happens when the trust fund reserves run out?

If the trust funds are exhausted, Social Security must rely solely on payroll tax income. That means benefits must be cut to match income. 

The Trustees estimate a cut of about 19 to 23 percent unless Congress intervenes.

The benefit cut would apply across all beneficiaries. There would be no preferential treatment unless legislation says otherwise.

What are the driving factors behind the funding gap?

Several trends are stressing Social Security’s finances:

1. Aging population and lower birthrates, reducing the worker-to-beneficiary ratio.
2. Rising costs: benefits, health care, disability programs.
3. Slower wage growth and less payroll tax revenue relative to projections.
4. Legislative expansions: for example, the Social Security Fairness Act increased benefits for some groups, adding to the cost burden.
5. Policy assumptions (immigration, labor participation, life expectancy) that may turn out less favorable.

What policy solutions are being discussed?

Experts and lawmakers propose combinations of measures rather than single fixes. Common proposals:

1. Raise payroll tax rates (for employees and/or employers).
2. Raise or eliminate the taxable earnings cap (currently, only wages up to a certain threshold pay Social Security tax).
3. Modify benefit formulas: reduce growth for higher earners or initial benefits.
4. Increase the full retirement age or adjust indexing.
5. Phased changes that gradually spread burdens so no group is hit too hard at once.
6. Broader revenue sources: general revenue, trust fund transfers, other taxes.

Reforms depend heavily on political will. The longer Congress delays, the more severe adjustments will become.

What does this mean for current and future retirees?

1. If no reform occurs, benefit cuts may begin in the early 2030s.
2. For those nearing retirement, it’s prudent to assume a possible reduction and plan alternative income sources.
3. Delaying claiming past full retirement age, saving more privately, or diversifying retirement income may buffer against cuts.
4. Young workers should not expect full projected benefits based on today’s rules—they should plan conservatively.

What should individuals do now to prepare?

1. Monitor legislative developments concerning Social Security reform.
2. Use SSA tools (my Social Security account, benefit calculators) to estimate scenarios under possible cuts.
3. Save in IRAs, 401(k)s, or other retirement plans to reduce reliance solely on Social Security.
4. Consider delaying benefit claims where possible to maximize annual benefit.
5. Stay informed about political proposals and engage in policy discussions if you wish to influence outcomes.