There’s a lot of concern around the future of Social Security.
Questions often include whether payments will stop, if benefits will be cut, and how soon changes might happen.
According to the SSA’s Board of Trustees, the trust funds that help support Social Security are projected to be depleted by about 2033-2034 under current law.
This article explains what “running out” really means, what would change for beneficiaries, and what the realistic outcomes might be.
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What does it mean for Social Security to “run out”?
When analysts say Social Security will “run out,” they mean the reserve trust funds (the Old-Age & Survivors Insurance (OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI) funds) will be exhausted.
These funds exist to bridge the gap when benefit payments exceed payroll tax income.
Once the reserves hit zero, Social Security cannot draw from them — only incoming revenues (e.g., payroll taxes) remain.
That doesn’t mean payments stop, but the program loses its extra financial cushion.
Will Social Security stop paying benefits entirely?
No, Social Security would not vanish entirely. Even after the trust funds are depleted, payroll tax revenues are still collected.
According to SSA estimates, under current law, Social Security could still pay about 77 %–81 % of scheduled benefits once the trust fund is exhausted.
That means while benefits would likely be reduced, they would not disappear.
The SSA fact sheet explains that benefits are still paid thanks to ongoing tax income.
When is the trust fund expected to be depleted?
Recent projections place the depletion of the combined OASI + DI trust funds around 2033-2034 if no legislative changes occur.
For example, one report suggests full payments could still be made through 2033, but after that point, only about 77 % could be covered.
It’s important to note these are projections, not guarantees. Many factors (economy, demographics, legislation) could shift the timeline.
What happens to benefit amounts if no changes are made?
If nothing is done, beneficiaries could receive reduced monthly benefits after the trust fund runs out.
Some estimates suggest cuts of around 20%-25% may be needed to match available revenue.
For instance, one source says if the trust funds are gone by 2034, payments might be limited to around 81% of scheduled benefits.
This reduction would apply across the board unless specific legislative actions protected some categories of beneficiaries.
Who is most affected by a shortfall?
Those nearing retirement, older workers, and people with disabilities have the most to lose.
A reduction in benefits could significantly impact their income.
A study found that if full benefits weren’t paid, poverty rates among older and disabled Americans could rise sharply.
Younger workers also face risk: the benefits they expect may be lower, or taxes may rise, altering their retirement plans.
What can Congress or policymakers do to prevent benefit reductions?
Several options exist:
- Increase payroll tax rates or subject higher earnings to tax (e.g., lifting the taxable wage cap).
- Raise the retirement age or modify benefit formulas.
- Change how cost-of-living adjustments (COLA) are calculated.
Early action could spread changes over many years and minimize impact. Without action, changes would be steeper and more sudden.
What should an individual do to prepare?
Even though current beneficiaries can expect to receive payments under current law, planning is wise. Consider:
- Checking your earnings record via your “my Social Security” account.
- Estimating your benefit amount and assessing whether it will meet your retirement or disability income needs.
- Building supplemental sources of retirement income (personal savings, employer plans, investments) in case benefits are lower than expected.
- Staying informed about legislative changes that could affect Social Security policy.
Being proactive helps reduce uncertainty and ensures you’re better prepared.