What Is the Social Security Increase for 2026? Latest COLA Forecasts

Every year, Social Security benefits may increase by a cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), designed to help benefits keep up with inflation. 

The 2026 COLA is not set yet, but multiple analysts and senior advocacy groups have made forecasts based on inflation trends and economic data. 

How does SSA determine the COLA each year?

The Social Security Administration uses the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) to measure inflation. 

Specifically, it compares the average of CPI-W in July, August, and September of the current year to the same months in the prior year. 

If there is an increase, that percentage becomes the COLA. If prices fall, benefits do not go down. That formula is fixed by law.

Delays in publishing CPI data (for example, during a government shutdown) can postpone the official COLA announcement, though benefits will still be adjusted on time.

What are the leading forecasts now for 2026?

Here’s where analysts and groups currently stand:

1. The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) has upped its estimate to 2.5 % (from 2.4 %) based on recent inflation data.
2. Kiplinger and other financial media are pointing to 2.7 % as the most likely COLA, citing July and August CPI-W data that showed 2.5 % and 2.8 % gains, respectively.
3. Investopedia references TSCL projections of 2.7 %, and independent analyst Mary Johnson’s belief it could be 2.8 %.
4. Some earlier forecasts suggested a lower range: for example, a 2.4 % estimate was cited in Newsweek.

So while forecasts vary, many now lean toward 2.5 % to 2.8 % as the probable COLA for 2026.

What would that mean for benefit increases in dollars?

If your monthly benefit is, say, $2,000, here’s how different COLA percentages could translate:

COLA Estimate	Increase (per month)	New Benefit (approx)
2.5 %	+ $50	$2,050
2.7 %	+ $54	$2,054
2.8 %	+ $56	$2,056

Those numbers are rough, pre-deduction estimates. After Medicare premiums, taxes, or other withholdings, your net gain will be smaller.

How might Medicare and deductions affect your net increase?

Even if you get a 2.5 % to 2.8 % increase, your net benefit gain may be reduced by:

1. Higher Medicare Part B / Part D premiums that are deducted from Social Security checks
2. Income taxes on your Social Security (if your other income pushes you into taxable thresholds)
3. Other withholdings or offsets

So you may see only part of the gross COLA as usable extra income.

What could cause the COLA forecast to shift?

The final COLA depends heavily on inflation data for July through September, which is not fully published yet. Factors that could shift the number include:

1. Sudden spikes or drops in consumer prices in September
2. Tariff changes, energy costs, or supply chain disruptions
3. Data collection issues at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) or delays due to government shutdowns

That means the forecasts today are provisional.

What changes are possible after 2026 under policy proposals?

Interestingly, SSA’s official COLA provisions include proposals affecting future years. For example:

• Some proposals would reduce the COLA by 1.0 percentage point each year starting December 2026.
• Others suggest using a different inflation measure (such as a chained index or CPI-E) starting in later years, which could reduce benefit growth.

These changes haven’t been enacted yet, but are on the discussion table.

What should recipients do now to prepare?

Here are practical tips:

1. Treat current COLA forecasts (2.5%–2.8%) as tentative estimates—not guarantees.
2. Estimate your 2026 budget based on the lower end of the range to stay cautious.
3. Watch closely in October for the official COLA announcement once CPI data is finalized.
4. Calculate your likely net gain after Medicare premiums and taxes.
5. Keep some flexibility in your retirement budget in case the COLA falls lower than projected.