Will Social Security Run Out? Expert Predictions for the Future

The question “Will Social Security run out?” has loomed over retirement planning for decades. 

Experts now generally agree: under current law, the trust funds that help pay Social Security will be depleted in the 2030s. But “run out” does not mean zero benefits. 

After depletion, Social Security could still pay a portion of scheduled benefits from current tax income.

What do the Social Security Trustees currently project?

According to the 2025 Trustees Report, the combined OASI (Old-Age and Survivors Insurance) and DI (Disability Insurance) trust funds are projected to be fully depleted by 2034 if no legislative changes are made.

In that scenario, Social Security would only be able to pay about 81 % of scheduled benefits from tax income alone.

The OASI (retirement & survivors) fund alone is projected to run out by 2033, the same as in prior reports.

The DI (disability) fund is forecast to last through the 75-year projection window under current assumptions.

What do other experts (CBO, analysts) predict?

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates the combined Social Security trust funds will be exhausted by 2034. 

After that, benefits would be limited to the amount of revenue collected, causing a cut in payouts.

In their payable benefits scenario, CBO projects benefits would need to be cut by ~23 % in 2035 relative to scheduled benefits.

Budget and policy groups highlight that over a 75-year horizon, Social Security faces a systemic shortfall equal to about 3.82 % of taxable payroll (or ~1.3 % of GDP) under current law. 

Moreover, in 2025, the Social Security Fairness Act (which repealed the Windfall Elimination Provision and Government Pension Offset) increased benefit obligations and contributed to worsening the long-term deficit.

What does depletion mean?

Depletion does not mean Social Security disappears entirely; instead, it means the trust funds’ reserves (the accumulated surplus) are exhausted. 

At that point, Social Security must rely solely on payroll tax income to pay benefits.

Because tax revenue will not be sufficient to cover the full amount of scheduled benefits, benefit payments would be automatically reduced (e.g., ~19–20 % cut under the Trustees’ “81 % of benefits” scenario).

Note: The current law does not legally mandate how the cuts would be allocated or implemented.

What factors are driving the shortfall?

Several demographic and economic trends contribute:

1. Aging population and rising life expectancies mean more beneficiaries relative to workers.
2. Declining fertility rates, which slow the growth of the future workforce.
3. Stagnating wage growth and changes in labor share reduce payroll tax revenue.
4. Policy changes (like the Fairness Act) that increase benefit obligations.
5. The fact that more earnings are above the wage cap (and thus not subject to Social Security tax).

How severe are the projected benefit cuts?

If no reforms occur, the cut in benefits is expected to be meaningful:

1. The Trustees project benefits would drop to ~81 % of scheduled levels after depletion.
2. In CBO’s model, benefits in 2035 would be ~23 % lower than scheduled.
3. Long run, the gap could widen further: the difference between scheduled and payable benefits might reach ~28 % by 2098.
4. For the OASI fund specifically, cuts could begin as early as 2033 under certain scenarios.

What are potential policy solutions experts propose?

To prevent or soften the impact of depletion, experts suggest combinations of:

1. Increasing payroll taxes (raising the tax rate or expanding the wage base)
2. Raising the full retirement age or modifying benefit formulas
3. Reducing benefits, particularly for high earners
4. Using general revenues to supplement trust fund deficits
5. Adjusting indexing rules for benefits or growth rates

Most analysts emphasize a combination approach — no single change solves the problem alone.

What should current and future retirees keep in mind?

1. The depletion date is not imminent, but cuts are expected if nothing changes.
2. If you plan to claim Social Security later, your benefit could be affected by a cut depending on timing and reforms.
3. Benefit reductions would likely be across the board, rather than eliminating benefits for just some people.
4. Monitoring legislative developments is critical — reforms passed in the coming years will shape how big a hit benefits may take.
5. Planning for alternative income sources (pensions, investments, savings) remains prudent given the uncertainty ahead.